Thursday, January 05, 2012

Obligatory Presidential Race Breakdown

I called the 2008 election for Obama in March of that year, but I was told by a friend that he remembered me making the call at a New Year's Eve party, a full ten months before the actual election. As an exercise in having the courage of my convictions, here is my layout of what's going to happen in presidential politics between now and November.

Romney's going to get the Republican nomination. Santorum may carry a bit of momentum into the other caucuses, but it's going to fall off. There may be Gingrich resurgence in a couple of states, but it won't last. Ron Paul's crazy ass is going to keep on keepin' on and will probably attract enough of the right wing fringe vote to help minimize the damage done by Romney's centrist cred. It will be exciting. It will be dramatic. It will be good television.

All the liberals who have been disappointed in Obama will remember why they loved him when the general election comes around. Watch for Obama to hammer away at the fact that he ended Don't Ask Don't Tell, and watch for him to seriously put the screws to Congress. Expect big promises on clean energy, education, and healthcare. Expect paternal disapproval of partisanship.

I'd say Romney had a chance if he weren't up against a sitting president. Nobody can call Barack Obama inexperienced any more, and that was his biggest weakness last time around.

Obama beats Romney in November.

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